Stefano Napolitano vs Gonzalo Villanueva — Cordenons Quarter-final
Napolitano S.
Stefano Napolitano faces Gonzalo Villanueva in the Cordenons quarter-final on clay. Stefano Napolitano is the paper favourite — ranked #240, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage — but Gonzalo Villanueva arrives in form, winning all 4 of their last clay matches to Stefano Napolitano's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Napolitano S. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Stefano Napolitano comes in with 3 days of rest and 24 games in 14d, vs Gonzalo Villanueva's 1 and 152.
- Form trend: Form trajectories diverge: Gonzalo Villanueva rising, Stefano Napolitano cooling.
- Last match: Gonzalo Villanueva handed Juan Cruz Martin Manzano a second-set bagel in a 6–2 6–0 win.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadNapolitano S.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 24 games (7d) · Villanueva G.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 61 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.