Hanne Vandewinkel vs Harmony Tan — Istanbul 2 Quarter-final

Istanbul 2 · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final

BEL

Hanne Vandewinkel

#98WTA

1690ELO

1730Hard ELO

22 yrs

Last 10

WWLLLWWWLL

—

Sets

Thursday, 16 July 2026 · 13:00

hard

FRA

Harmony Tan

#194WTA

1585ELO

1547Hard ELO

28 yrs · 171 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWLWWLWWWW

Vandewinkel H.

Tan H.

Hanne Vandewinkel faces Harmony Tan in the Istanbul 2 quarter-final on hard. Hanne Vandewinkel holds the paper edge — ranked #98, a roughly 180-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC

Vandewinkel H.65%

Tan H.35%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Vandewinkel H. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Hanne Vandewinkel has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 78 vs 40).
Last match: Harmony Tan dropped just 5 games past Anastasia Gasanova.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Vandewinkel H.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Tan H.

5.6

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

7.3+183 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

2.7Hard Elo 1547

5.5Overall Elo 1690

ELO gap

4.5Overall Elo 1585

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

9.29 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

8.08 of last 10 on hard

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Vandewinkel H.Stable

Tan H.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

35 vs 24 matches

Statistics

This season

Vandewinkel H.Tan H.

1st serve in·Slight edge

64%

54%

1st serve points won·Even

67%

2nd serve points won·Even

47%

49%

Service points won·Even

60%

59%

Return points won·Even

46%

45%

Break points saved·Even

58%

60%

Aces / match·Slight edge

3.8

2.5

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.9

2.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Vandewinkel H.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Tan H.

Tan H.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Vandewinkel H.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Vandewinkel H.Tan H.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Even

Break points won·Clear edge

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·

—

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Vandewinkel H.Tan H.

Freshness·Clear edge

Vandewinkel H.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Tan H.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 31 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather forecast

30°CMainly clear

Wind 14 km/hHumidity 41%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.