Hanne Vandewinkel vs Weronika Falkowska — Istanbul 2
Vandewinkel H.
Hanne Vandewinkel faces Weronika Falkowska in the Istanbul 2 match on hard. Hanne Vandewinkel is the paper favourite — ranked #98, a roughly 470-point hard Elo advantage — but Weronika Falkowska rides a 3-match win streak.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Vandewinkel H. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Hanne Vandewinkel 18 games in 14 days, Weronika Falkowska 38.
- Last match: Weronika Falkowska dropped the opening set before beating Deniz Dilek 5–7 7–6 6–2.
- Last match: Hanne Vandewinkel dropped just 6 games past Carol Young Suh Lee.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (35 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadVandewinkel H.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Falkowska W.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.