Maria Lourdes Carle vs Barbora Palicova — Kitzbuhel
Carle M.
Maria Lourdes Carle faces Barbora Palicova in the Kitzbuhel match on clay. Maria Lourdes Carle holds the paper edge — ranked #218, a roughly 90-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Carle M. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Maria Lourdes Carle has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 27 vs 7).
- Last match: Barbora Palicova dropped the opening set before beating Martina Colmegna 3–6 7–6 6–1.
- Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCarle M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 38 games (7d) · Palicova B.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
When it starts
4th on GRANDSTAND · not before Followed by · 3 matches still to finish ahead
- 1Grabher J. v Perelygina E.
- 2Erjavec V. v Barthel M.
- 3Andreeva E. v Ristic M.
- 4Carle M. v Palicova B.This match
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.