Erika Andreeva vs Mia Ristic — Kitzbuhel Round of 16
Andreeva E.
Erika Andreeva faces Mia Ristic in the Kitzbuhel round of 16 on clay. Erika Andreeva holds the paper edge — ranked #231, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Andreeva E. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Erika Andreeva has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 65 vs Mia Ristic's 19).
- Last match: Erika Andreeva dropped just 3 games past Despina Papamichail.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadAndreeva E.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.