Veronika Erjavec vs Mona BarthelKitzbuhel

Kitzbuhel · CHALLENGER
#105WTA
1629ELO
1610Clay ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLWLLLWLW
Sets
Wednesday, 15 July 2026 ·
clay
GRANDSTAND · 2nd on
#223WTA
1551ELO
1500Clay ELO
36 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLLLLLLWLW
Erjavec V.
vs
Barthel M.

Veronika Erjavec faces Mona Barthel in the Kitzbuhel match on clay. Veronika Erjavec holds the paper edge — ranked #105, a roughly 110-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC
Erjavec V.62%
Barthel M.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Erjavec V. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.4+110 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.6Clay Elo 1500
5.7Overall Elo 1628
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1551
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
5.86 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.13 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

27 vs 31 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
65%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
60%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
45%
Service points won·Even
56%
60%
Return points won·Even
47%
45%
Break points saved·Even
55%
59%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.0
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.3
7.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Erjavec V.serving46% hold

wins 48% of points on serve vs Barthel M.

Barthel M.serving51% hold

wins 50% of points on serve vs Erjavec V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
83
31
Break points saved·Clear edge
83
59
Break points won·Dominant
94
68
Deciding sets·Dominant
85
48
Tiebreaks·
18

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
73
96

Erjavec V.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d) · Barthel M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

When it starts

2nd on GRANDSTAND · not before Followed by · 1 match still to finish ahead

  1. 1Grabher J. v Perelygina E.
  2. 2Erjavec V. v Barthel M.This match
  3. 3Andreeva E. v Ristic M.
  4. 4Carle M. v Palicova B.

Conditions

Weather forecast
21°CRain
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 78%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.