Carlo Alberto Caniato vs Calvin Hemery — Troyes Round of 16
Caniato C.
Carlo Alberto Caniato faces Calvin Hemery in the Troyes round of 16 on clay. Calvin Hemery is the paper favourite — ranked #291, a roughly 180-point clay Elo advantage — but Carlo Alberto Caniato arrives in form, winning 2 of their last 4 on clay to Calvin Hemery's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 10:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Hemery C. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Carlo Alberto Caniato dropped just 3 games past Izan Almazan Valiente.
- Last match: Calvin Hemery dropped just 4 games past Anton Matusevich.
- Surface form: Carlo Alberto Caniato 2 of 4, Calvin Hemery 1 of 4 on clay recently — Carlo Alberto Caniato the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 32). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadCaniato C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 15 games (7d) · Hemery C.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.