Lorenzo Giustino vs Marko Topo — Troyes Round of 16
Giustino L.
Lorenzo Giustino faces Marko Topo in the Troyes round of 16 on clay. Lorenzo Giustino holds the paper edge — ranked #226. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Topo M. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Form trend: Marko Topo's form has been trending up over recent weeks, while Lorenzo Giustino's has cooled.
- Under pressure: Marko Topo has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 28 vs Lorenzo Giustino's 0).
- Fatigue load: Marko Topo carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGiustino L.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Topo M.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 46 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.