Lorenzo Giustino vs Igor Ribeiro Marcondes — Troyes Quarter-final
Giustino L.
Lorenzo Giustino faces Igor Ribeiro Marcondes in the Troyes quarter-final on clay. Igor Ribeiro Marcondes holds the paper edge — a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Ribeiro Marcondes I. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lorenzo Giustino 48 games in 14 days, Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 32.
- Last match: Igor Ribeiro Marcondes handed Luca Staeheli a second-set bagel in a 7–6 6–0 win.
- Surface form: Lorenzo Giustino 3 of 8, Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 5 of 8 on clay recently — Igor Ribeiro Marcondes the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadGiustino L.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 27 games (7d) · Ribeiro Marcondes I.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 32 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.