Lorenzo Giustino vs Kilian Feldbausch — Troyes Semi-final
Giustino L.
Lorenzo Giustino faces Kilian Feldbausch in the Troyes semi-final on clay. Lorenzo Giustino is the paper favourite — ranked #226 — but Kilian Feldbausch arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 8 on clay to Lorenzo Giustino's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Feldbausch K. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Kilian Feldbausch has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 44 vs Lorenzo Giustino's 0).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Lorenzo Giustino 68 games in 14 days, Kilian Feldbausch 50.
- Last match: Lorenzo Giustino dropped the opening set before beating Igor Ribeiro Marcondes 4–6 7–6 6–1.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGiustino L.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 47 games (7d) · Feldbausch K.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 33 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.