Maxime Chazal vs Patrick Zahraj — Troyes Round of 32

Troyes · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
FRA
Maxime Chazal
#488ATP
1294ELO
1262Clay ELO
33 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLLWWWL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
GER
Patrick Zahraj
#401ATP
1332ELO
1259Clay ELO
26 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWLLW
Chazal M.
vs
Zahraj P.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Chazal M.42%
Zahraj P.58%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Zahraj P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Chazal M.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Zahraj P.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.0+3 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
5.0Clay Elo 1259
4.5Overall Elo 1294
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1332
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.83 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
2.63 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Prev. match
9.0Last match 1h12m
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Chazal M.Stableearly
Zahraj P.Cooling

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

7 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Chazal M.Zahraj P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
75%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Slight edge
65%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
33%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
3.4
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.1
6.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Chazal M.serving75% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Zahraj P.

Zahraj P.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Chazal M.

Serve advantage — Chazal M.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Chazal M.Zahraj P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
4
21
Break points saved·Dominant
40
69
Break points won·Clear edge
22
10
Deciding sets·Even
16
13
Tiebreaks·Dominant
15
71

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Chazal M.Zahraj P.
Freshness·
91
—

Chazal M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 14 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CMainly clear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.