Federico Bondioli vs Inaki Montes De La TorreTroyes Round of 32

Troyes · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#359ATP
1396ELO
1383Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLWLWLWLWL
Sets
Tuesday, 30 June 2026 ·
clay
#312ATP
1504ELO
1422Clay ELO
23 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWLWWWW
Bondioli F.
vs
Montes De La Torre I.

Federico Bondioli faces Inaki Montes De La Torre in the Troyes round of 32 on clay. Inaki Montes De La Torre holds the paper edge — ranked #312, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:21 UTC
Bondioli F.31%
Montes De La Torre I.69%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Montes De La Torre I. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
7.6
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.5Clay Elo 1383
Surface ELO
5.5+39 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1396
ELO gap
6.3Overall Elo 1504
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.24 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.19 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
9.05-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Form trajectory

Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About

18 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
57%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
47%
Break points saved·Even
54%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.3
4.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bondioli F.serving51% hold

wins 51% of points on serve vs Montes De La Torre I.

Montes De La Torre I.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Bondioli F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
91
55

Bondioli F.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Montes De La Torre I.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 117 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 58%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.