Alex Rybakov vs Hiroki MoriyaCary Qualifying Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#432ATP
1352ELO
1310Hard ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWLLLWL
0 — 1
Sets
Retired
Sunday, 28 June 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 2nd on
#472ATP
1353ELO
1321Hard ELO
35 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLLLWLWL
Rybakov A.
6-7 2-5
Moriya H.
Rybakov A.
6320
Moriya H.
7751

Hiroki Moriya advanced when Alex Rybakov retired 7-6 5-2 in the Cary qualifying semi-final.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Rybakov A.serving73% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Moriya H.

Moriya H.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Rybakov A.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
51%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Even
55%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
3.3
2.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
16
3
Break points saved·Dominant
84
36
Break points won·Even
5
9
Deciding sets·Slight edge
22
32
Tiebreaks·Even
4
6

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:21 UTC
Rybakov A.46%
Moriya H.54%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Hard Elo 1310
Surface ELO
5.1+11 Hard Elo edge
5.0Overall Elo 1352
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1353
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.63 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.43 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 5
Fatigue & Travel
Prev. match
9.0Last match 1h27m
6.0Clay → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
87
87

Rybakov A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d) · Moriya H.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 20 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 74%