Justin Boulais vs Jay Dylan Hara FriendCary Qualifying Final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#396ATP
1352ELO
1326Hard ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWWWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
hard
COURT 4 · 1st on
1503ELO
1480Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLLLWW
Boulais J.
6-7 6-4 3-6
Friend J.
Boulais J.
62631
Friend J.
77462

It took 32 games for Jay Dylan Hara Friend to get past Justin Boulais 7-6 4-6 6-3 in the Cary qualifying final.

Key context

  • Set 2, game 7: Justin Boulais broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Justin Boulais converted 2 of 4 break points; Jay Dylan Hara Friend converted 2 of 9 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Boulais J.
Friend J.
Break points won
2/4
2/9
Break points saved
7/9
2/4

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Boulais J.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Friend J.

Friend J.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Boulais J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
71%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
48%
Service points won·Even
62%
63%
Return points won·Even
41%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
58%
Aces / match·Slight edge
4.3
5.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.4
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:20 UTC
Boulais J.10%
Friend J.90%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Friend J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
3.1Hard Elo 1326
Surface ELO
6.9+154 Hard Elo edge
3.1Overall Elo 1352
ELO gap
6.9Overall Elo 1503
7.8Leads 2–0 on hard
H2H
2.2Trails 0–2 on hard
8.69 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.86 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
74
88

Boulais J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 34 games (7d) · Friend J.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°COvercast
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 91%