Quinn Vandecasteele vs Masamichi ImamuraCary Qualifying Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#455ATP
1380ELO
1367Hard ELO
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 28 June 2026 ·
hard
Court 3 · 1st on
#417ATP
1328ELO
1297Hard ELO
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWLWWL
Vandecasteele Q.
3-6 3-6
Imamura M.
Vandecasteele Q.
330
Imamura M.
662

Masamichi Imamura dropped just six games in a straight-sets win over Quinn Vandecasteele in the Cary qualifying semi-final.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 3: Masamichi Imamura broke serve.
  • Set 2, game 3: Masamichi Imamura saved three break points to hold serve.
  • Pressure points: Quinn Vandecasteele converted 2 of 6 break points; Masamichi Imamura converted 5 of 7 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Vandecasteele Q.
Imamura M.
Break points won
2/6
5/7
Break points saved
2/7
4/6

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Vandecasteele Q.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Imamura M.

Imamura M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Vandecasteele Q.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
66%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
51%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.4
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.5
1.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC
Vandecasteele Q.71%
Imamura M.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Vandecasteele Q. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.9+70 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.1Hard Elo 1297
5.7Overall Elo 1380
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1328
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.46 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
85
88

Vandecasteele Q.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Imamura M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
27°CClear
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 78%