Hiroki Moriya vs Edward Winter — Cary Qualifying Final
Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
#517ATP
1353ELO
1321Hard ELO
35 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLWLWWL
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 29 June 2026 ·
hard
COURT 15 · 2nd on
AUS12#355ATP
1434ELO
1404Hard ELO
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWLWL
Moriya H.6-4 2-6 3-6
Winter E.
Moriya H.
6231
Winter E.
4662
Edward Winter won the final of the Cary hard-court tournament, defeating Hiroki Moriya 4-6, 6-2, 6-3. Winter served 7 aces to Moriya's 3 and converted 4 service breaks to Moriya's 2. Winter also had a 68% first-serve win percentage, compared to Moriya's 65%.
Key context
- Match story: Edward Winter dropped the opening set before beating Hiroki Moriya 4–6 6–2 6–3.
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Even
61%
60%
Return points won·Even
40%
41%
Break points saved·Even
57%
61%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
2.5
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
2.9
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTCMoriya H.18%
Winter E.82%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Winter E. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1321
Surface ELO6.0+83 Hard Elo edge
4.0Overall Elo 1353
ELO gap6.0Overall Elo 1434
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form6.77 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
27°COvercast
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 78%