Yuta Shimizu vs Dan Martin — Cary Qualifying Semi-final

Cary · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final

JPN3

Yuta Shimizu

#356ATP

1447ELO

1417Hard ELO

27 yrs · 163 cm · Left-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLWWLWWLLW

2 — 0

Sets

Sunday, 28 June 2026 · 10:10

hard

Court 4 · 1st on

CAN

Dan Martin

1313ELO

1276Hard ELO

27 yrs · 175 cm

Last 10 · pre-match

LLLLLWLLWL

Shimizu Y.

7-6 7-6

Martin D.

Shimizu Y.

7⁷7⁷2

Martin D.

6⁴6²0

Dan Martin broke serve in the second set to take control and defeat Dan Martin 7-6 7-6 in the Cary qualifying semi-final.

Key context

Pressure points: Yuta Shimizu converted 2 of 3 break points; Dan Martin converted 2 of 5 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Shimizu Y.

Martin D.

Break points won

2/3

2/5

Break points saved

3/5

1/3

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Shimizu Y.serving87% hold

wins 68% of points on serve vs Martin D.

Martin D.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Shimizu Y.

Serve advantage — Shimizu Y.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season

Shimizu Y.Martin D.

1st serve in·Even

63%

61%

1st serve points won·Even

69%

2nd serve points won·Even

52%

Service points won·Even

62%

Return points won·Slight edge

38%

33%

Break points saved·Slight edge

60%

66%

Aces / match·Even

4.8

5.0

Double faults / match·Slight edge

2.4

3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (26 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC

Shimizu Y.87%

Martin D.13%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Shimizu Y. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Shimizu Y.

6.7

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Martin D.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

6.8+141 Hard Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.2Hard Elo 1276

6.7Overall Elo 1447

ELO gap

3.3Overall Elo 1313

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

6.06 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

1.52 of last 10 on hard

0.0

Win streak

0.0Lost last 4

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.