Lulu Sun vs Mary Stoiana — Ilkley Round of 16

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 16

NZL

Lulu Sun

#110WTA

1668ELO

1586Grass ELO

25 yrs · Left-handed

Last 10

WLLWWLLLLW

—

Sets

Thursday, 11 June 2026 · 20:30

grass

COURT 4 · 2nd on

USA

Mary Stoiana

#142WTA

1570ELO

1460Grass ELO

23 yrs

Last 10

WLWWLWWLLL

Lulu Sun faces Mary Stoiana in the Ilkley round of 16 on grass. Lulu Sun holds the paper edge — ranked #110, a roughly 130-point grass Elo advantage.

Key context

Last match: Lulu Sun dropped the opening set before beating Ella Mcdonald 2–6 6–2 6–2.
Last match: Mary Stoiana edged Kayla Day in two tight sets (7–5 6–4).
Fatigue load: Mary Stoiana carries the heavier recent load — 3 three-setters to 2 in the past fortnight.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:20 UTC

Sun L.79%

Stoiana M.21%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Sun L. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sun L.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Stoiana M.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Form & Matchup

6.6+126 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

3.4Grass Elo 1460

5.4Overall Elo 1668

ELO gap

4.6Overall Elo 1570

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

4.75 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather forecast

15°CDrizzle

Wind 22 km/hHumidity 94%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form

Sun L.Stoiana M.

57%1st serve in+7%64%

69%1st serve points won+6%63%

51%2nd serve points won+6%45%

62%Service points won+6%56%

39%Return points won+7%46%

62%Break points saved+10%52%

5.5Aces / match+4.11.4

3.2Double faults / match+0.23

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.