Lulu Sun vs Ella Mcdonald — Ilkley Round of 32

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
NZL
Lulu Sun
#110WTA
1668ELO
1586Grass ELO
25 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLLLLWW
2 — 1
Sets
Tuesday, 9 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 2 · 2nd on
GBRQ
Ella Mcdonald
#538WTA
1295ELO
1349Grass ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLWWLWLW

Lulu Sun recovered from a set down to defeat Ella Mcdonald 2-6 6-2 6-2 in the Ilkley round of 32.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 2: Ella Mcdonald broke serve.
  • Set 3, game 3: Lulu Sun broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Ella Mcdonald converted 2 of 6 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:21 UTC
Sun L.89%
Mcdonald E.11%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Sun L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Sun L.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Mcdonald E.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.0+237 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Grass Elo 1349
7.3Overall Elo 1668
ELO gap
2.7Overall Elo 1295
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.44 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
5.95 of last 9 on grass
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Country comfort
10.0Home country · 2/2 here
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Sun L.
2662
Mcdonald E.
6221

Conditions

Weather
14°COvercast
Wind 27 km/hHumidity 66%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Sun L.Mcdonald E.
57%1st serve in+5%62%
69%1st serve points won+5%64%
51%2nd serve points won+9%42%
62%Service points won+6%56%
39%Return points won+6%45%
62%Break points saved+9%53%
5.5Aces / match+3.61.9
3.2Double faults / match+2.15.3

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw