Kayla Day vs Mary Stoiana — Ilkley Round of 32

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
USA
Kayla Day
#136WTA
1600ELO
1411Grass ELO
26 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWWLWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Tuesday, 9 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 4 · 1st on
USA
Mary Stoiana
#142WTA
1570ELO
1460Grass ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWLLLW

Kayla Day broke serve in the first set to take control and defeat Kayla Day 7-5 6-4 in the Ilkley round of 32.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 7: A 13-point game with four deuces went Mary Stoiana's way.
  • Pressure points: Kayla Day converted 2 of 5 break points; Mary Stoiana converted 4 of 11 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:21 UTC
Day K.62%
Stoiana M.38%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Day K. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Day K.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Stoiana M.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
4.4Grass Elo 1411
Surface ELO
5.6+49 Grass Elo edge
5.7Overall Elo 1600
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1570
5.0First meeting on grass
H2H
5.0First meeting on grass
3.13 of last 10 on grass
Surface form
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Day K.
540
Stoiana M.
762

Conditions

Weather
11°CDrizzle
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 84%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

Recent form
Day K.Stoiana M.
67%1st serve in+3%64%
65%1st serve points won+2%63%
45%2nd serve points won45%
58%Service points won+2%56%
48%Return points won+2%46%
57%Break points saved+5%52%
2.8Aces / match+1.41.4
2.5Double faults / match+0.53

Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Draw