Win Probability

Friday, 16 October 2026
20 rated matches · 11 tournamentsModel last updated 08:50 UTC
Closest matchNicolas Kicker vs Facundo Mena50% · 50%Toss-up · Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 · R16 · Analyze match →
Strongest favouriteIga Swiatek vs Ann Li81% · 19%Strong favourite · Wuhan · QF · Analyze match →
Rated today20 matches2011 tournaments · pre-match predictions

Rated matches

Pre-match probability · updates until the match starts, then frozen
FinalSanta Cruz de la Sierra 2 · R16 · ClayNicolas Kicker won 7-6(4) 6-4Nicolas Kicker50%Facundo Mena50%Toss-upH2H 4–6FinalShanghai Masters · QF · HardRafael Jodar won 4-6 6-4 6-3Rafael Jodar50%Casper Ruud50%Toss-upNo prior meetingsStartedMallorca · QF · GrassJulia Grabher49%Ariana Geerlings51%Toss-upNo prior meetingsSan Gregorio di Catania · QF · ClayMax Wiskandt49%Massimo Giunta51%Toss-upH2H 0–1Mallorca · QF · GrassFrancesca Curmi52%Elizara Yaneva48%Toss-upH2H 0–1Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2 · QF · ClayJuan Manuel La Serna52%Franco Roncadelli48%Toss-upH2H 1–2StartedMallorca · R16 · GrassAne Mintegi Del Olmo53%Rebeka Masarova47%Toss-upH2H 3–0StartedM25 Santa Margherita di Pula · SF · ClayAlexander Weis53%Matthew William Donald47%Toss-upNo prior meetingsOlbia · QF · HardMichael Mmoh47%Luca Nardi53%Toss-upH2H 1–0Shanghai Masters · QF · HardDaniil Medvedev54%Tommy Paul46%Toss-upH2H 4–1RoveretOpen Citta della Pace - Rovereto · QF · HardLucie Havlickova55%Jil Teichmann45%Toss-upNo prior meetingsRoveretOpen Citta della Pace - Rovereto · QF · HardGabriela Andrea Knutson43%Martyna Kubka57%Toss-upH2H 1–0Roanne · QF · HardFelix Balshaw43%Mika Brunold57%Toss-upNo prior meetingsSan Gregorio di Catania · QF · ClayGianluca Cadenasso43%Marvin Moeller57%Toss-upNo prior meetingsLisboa Belem Open - Lisbon · QF · ClayClara Burel58%Guiomar Maristany Zuleta De Reales42%Slight edgeH2H 1–1StartedWuhan · QF · HardMaja Chwalinska40%Maria Sakkari60%Slight edgeH2H 1–1FinalWuhan · QF · HardSonay Kartal won 6-2 2-6 6-4Elina Svitolina62%Sonay Kartal38%Slight edgeUnderdog wonH2H 0–2Maia · QF · ClayMarco Trungelliti37%Francesco Passaro63%Slight edgeH2H 1–0FinalWuhan · QF · HardJelena Ostapenko won 7-6(6) 6-1Diana Shnaider75%Jelena Ostapenko25%Clear favouriteUnderdog wonNo prior meetingsWuhan · QF · HardAnn Li19%Iga Swiatek81%Strong favouriteH2H 0–1
Why isn't every match rated? →

Model performance

Measured on predictions the model actually made
Tour familyPredictionsFav. wonAccuracy
ATP / WTA2,546—66%
Challenger Men3,353—63%
Challenger Women893—65%
ITF Men4,763—67%
ITF Women4,436—66%
Yesterday · 15 Oct11 of 20 favourites wonBased on its probabilities, the model expected 12.3 favourites to win.View yesterday →
Biggest shock · last 7 days15 Oct 2026M25 Luanda · R16L. Larue beat Eliakim Coulibaly 6-3 2-1Pre-match: L. Larue 11%Surprise score89

How Win Probability works

Read methodology →
Separate models for each tour family.Pre-match only: probabilities update until the match starts.Frozen at the start and never rewritten afterwards.A statistical estimate, not a certainty; the two probabilities always add up to 100%.