Upset Audit

WTA Tour Berlin 2026: the biggest upsets

The most surprising results of WTA Tour Berlin 2026 in Berlin, Germany, ranked by the Umpiry Surprise Score— 100 minus the winner's frozen pre-match win probability. The higher the score, the bigger the shock. Tap any result for the full match.

1

Badosa P.def.Gauff C.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Round of 161-6 6-3 6-2

Pre-match WP: Badosa P. 14% · Gauff C. 86%

86

Umpiry
Surprise Score

2

Eala A.def.Rybakina E.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Round of 167-5 6-4

Pre-match WP: Eala A. 20% · Rybakina E. 80%

80

Umpiry
Surprise Score

3

Pegula J.def.Sabalenka A.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Semifinal4-6 7-6 0-6

Pre-match WP: Pegula J. 21% · Sabalenka A. 79%

79

Umpiry
Surprise Score

4

Bartunkova N.def.Mertens E.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Round of 161-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Bartunkova N. 25% · Mertens E. 75%

75

Umpiry
Surprise Score

5

Eala A.def.Svitolina E.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Quarterfinal3-6 4-6

Pre-match WP: Eala A. 26% · Svitolina E. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

6

Noskova L.def.Pegula J.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Final4-6 6-4 3-6

Pre-match WP: Noskova L. 26% · Pegula J. 74%

74

Umpiry
Surprise Score

7

Bartunkova N.def.Shnaider D.

WTA Tour Berlin 2026 — Round of 326-2 6-7 6-3

Pre-match WP: Bartunkova N. 30% · Shnaider D. 70%

70

Umpiry
Surprise Score

The Umpiry Surprise Score uses a calibrated win probability frozen at match start, never recomputed in hindsight. Only genuine shocks are listed — main-draw results where the winner was a clear underdog (Surprise Score 70+, i.e. a pre-match win probability of 30% or below). It is statistical information, not a betting recommendation.