Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova — Berlin Final
Pegula J.
Jessica Pegula faces Linda Noskova in the Berlin final on grass. Jessica Pegula is the paper favourite — ranked #4, defending last year's round of 16, a roughly 100-point grass Elo advantage — but Linda Noskova has won 2 of their 3 previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:21 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Pegula J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Last match: Linda Noskova dropped just 6 games past Alexandra Eala.
- Last match: Jessica Pegula handed Aryna Sabalenka a third-set bagel in a 6–4 6–7 6–0 win.
- Head-to-head: Linda Noskova leads the head-to-head 2–1, 1–0 on grass. Last met at Beijing 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Serve & return on grass
Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the grass field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About
Freshness
Recent loadPegula J.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Noskova L.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 49 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-24 | Beijing | SF | hard | Linda Noskova | 6-3 1-6 7-6(6) |
| 2025-06-22 | Bad Homburg | SF | grass | Jessica Pegula | 6-7(2) 7-5 6-1 |
| 2025-02-17 | Dubai | R16 | hard | Linda Noskova | 6-3 7-6(8) |