Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong KongQuarter-finalHardFri 6 Nov · 14:00Centre Court · Next on

Zeynep SonmezWTA #67 · TUR49%

VSToss-up

Claire LiuWTA #102 · USA51%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

49%51%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Sonmez Z.5.6/10

Slight disadvantage

Liu C.5.9/10

Even match

Why

Surface+95 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Sonmez Z.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1800Against the prediction · Sonmez Z.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Liu C.

Recent run2-match win streakBoth players

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

ELO1 877

Hard ELO1 737

Last 106–4

Age24

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.4M2026 $1.1M

ELO1 854

Hard ELO1 704

Last 106–4

Age26

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.8M2026 $477K

Zeynep Sonmez faces Claire Liu in the Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong quarter-final on hard. Zeynep Sonmez is the paper favourite — ranked #67, a roughly 100-point hard Elo advantage — but Claire Liu has won their only previous meeting, though none on hard. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Claire Liu leads on Serve Rating (53), Zeynep Sonmez on Return Rating (56).
Under pressure: In the tight moments, Zeynep Sonmez has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 55 vs 23).
Last match: Zeynep Sonmez edged Mika Stojsavljevic in two tight sets (7–6 6–4).

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Sonmez Z. and Liu C. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sonmez Z. went 3–7 (30%) against them, Liu C. 2–7 (22%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

3–730%Sonmez Z. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents2–722%Liu C. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

8–14Sets6–15

94–114Games93–115

2–0Tiebreaks1–2

0–2Deciding sets1–2

vs Gauff C.#4L3-6 4-6US Open · hardL3-6 7-6 2-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Sakkari M.#30L3-6 2-6Toronto · hardL3-6 3-6Roland Garros · clay
vs Tararudee L.#63W6-4 6-0Nottingham · grassL6-7(4) 4-6Wuhan · hard

Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Putintseva Y.#64L7-6(1) 3-6 5-7Wuhan · hardL5-7 2-6Iasi · clay
vs Linette M.#68L4-6 2-6s Hertogenbosch · grassL4-6 3-6Japan Open - Osaka · hard
vs Kraus S.#92W6-2 6-4Wuhan · hardL4-6 3-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Vandewinkel H.#111W6-3 6-4Eastbourne · grassW4-6 6-3 6-4Wimbledon · grass
vs Inglis M.#135L4-6 4-6Beijing · hardW6-4 6-3Japan Open - Osaka · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Liu C. leads 1–0

Liu C.July 2026WimbledonGrass5-7 3-6

Evidence

Sonmez Z.Liu C.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–46–4

Season win rate59% (36–25)67% (44–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18771854

Hard-court ELO17371704

Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 63 matches

1st-serve points won61%62%

Return points won45%47%

Aces / match1.13.1

ClutchLast 60 vs 63 matches

Break points saved53%55%

When it starts

Centre Court · Next on · Starting at 2:00 PM

1This match: Sonmez Z. v Liu C.This match
2Cirstea S. v Shubladze A.Not before 4:30 PM
3Sasnovich A. v Sakkari M.Not before 6:30 PM
4Ruzic A. v Eala A.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Centre Court · 14:00 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Drizzle

Wind16 km/h

Humidity73%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Sonmez Z.Liu C.

2Days since last match1

2Matches · 7 days3

44Games · 7 days65

4Matches · 14 days4

85Games · 14 days98

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Zeynep Sonmez vs Claire Liu — Hong Kong Tennis Open - Hong Kong Quarter-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-11-06/liu-vs-sonmez-hong-kong-tennis-open-hong-kong-qf?utm_source=cite (as of 6 November 2026).