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Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils — Basel Round of 16

BaselR16HardThu 29 Oct · 11:00
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Fils A.
32%68%

Clear edge for Fils A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 3 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Michelsen A.6.0/10
Even match
Fils A.7.3/10
Strong advantage
Why
Surface+120 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fils A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 2001Supports Fils A.
Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Fils A.
This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players
Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players
ELO2 033
Hard ELO1 910
Last 106–4
Age22
Height193 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $5.0M2026 $1.1M
ELO2 154
Hard ELO1 966
Last 107–3
Age22
Height185 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $3.4M

Alex Michelsen faces Arthur Fils in the Basel round of 16 on hard. Arthur Fils holds the paper edge — ranked #8, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Common opponents

8 shared · last 12 months

Michelsen A. and Fils A. faced 8 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Michelsen A. went 5–5 (50%) against them, Fils A. 6–6 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 2 better-results split).

5–550%Michelsen A. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents6–650%Fils A. · better vs 2
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
14–14Sets13–14
146–136Games135–132
1–3Tiebreaks2–4
3–1Deciding sets2–1
Show 5 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Fils A. leads 1–0
01

Evidence

Michelsen A.Fils A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss6–47–3 (ahead)
Season win rate63% (38–22)74% (40–14) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO20332154 (ahead)
Hard-court ELO19101966 (ahead)
Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 53 matches
1st-serve points won72%75% (ahead)
Return points won38% (ahead)37%
Aces / match6.2 (ahead)5.8
ClutchLast 60 vs 53 matches
Break points saved64%67% (ahead)

Draw

Odds

Conditions

11:00 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast7°C · Overcast
Wind7 km/h
Humidity92%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Michelsen A.Fils A.
1Days since last match1
3Matches · 7 days3
72 — fresherGames · 7 days84
4Matches · 14 days3 — fresher
87Games · 14 days84 — fresher
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Alex Michelsen vs Arthur Fils — Basel Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-29/fils-vs-michelsen-basel-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 29 October 2026).