Arthur Fils vs Jan Lennard Struff | Preview, H2H & Win Probability

UMPIRY

European Open - BrusselsSemi-finalHardSat 24 Oct · 18:30CENTRE COURT · After 1 match

Arthur Fils(1)ATP #10 · FRA84%

VSStrong favourite · Fils A.

Jan Lennard StruffATP #58 · GER16%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winStrong favourite · Fils A.

84%16%

Clear edge for Fils A. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 6 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Fils A.6.6/10

Marginal edge

Struff J.4.1/10

Heavy underdog

Why

Surface+296 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fils A.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 2001Supports Fils A.

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Struff J.

Head-to-headLeads 1–0 on hardSupports Fils A.

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO2 164

Hard ELO1 976

Last 107–3

Age22

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $9.5M2026 $3.4M

ELO1 970

Hard ELO1 752

Last 106–4

Age36

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $13.6M2026 $1.2M

Arthur Fils faces Jan Lennard Struff in the European Open - Brussels semi-final on hard. Arthur Fils is the paper favourite — ranked #10, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 300-point hard Elo advantage — but Jan Lennard Struff rides a 3-match win streak. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Under pressure: Arthur Fils has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 87 vs Jan Lennard Struff's 42).
Freshness: Workload contrast: Arthur Fils 64 games in 14 days, Jan Lennard Struff 95.
Last match: Arthur Fils edged Alex Michelsen in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

Fils A. and Struff J. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fils A. went 7–2 (78%) against them, Struff J. 1–7 (13%). Fils A. came out clearly better against 5 of 7 comparable opponents, Struff J. against 0.

7–278%Fils A. · better vs 5Record vs common opponents1–713%Struff J. · better vs 0

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

14–5Sets4–15

101–74Games73–106

1–1Tiebreaks0–4

1–0Deciding sets0–2

vs Sinner J.#1L2-6 4-6Madrid Masters · clayL5-7 6-7 3-6Wimbledon · grass
vs Lehecka J.#20W6-3 6-4Madrid Masters · clayL6-7 3-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Etcheverry T.#29W6-3 6-4Madrid Masters · clayL6-7 6-7ARG vs GER · hard

Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Michelsen A.#37W6-4 7-6(12)European Open - Brussels · hardL1-6 6-3 1-6Montreal · hard
vs Navone M.#45W6-3 6-2Montreal · hardL0-6 3-6Kitzbuhel · clay
vs Tirante T.#50W6-3 6-2Cincinnati · hardW6-1 6-4Beijing · hard
vs Blanch D.#159W6-2 6-3Miami Masters · hardL3-6 6-3 3-6Miami Masters · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Fils A. leads 1–0

Fils A.October 2024Paris MastersHard6-3 6-4

Evidence

Fils A.Struff J.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–36–4

Season win rate75% (39–13)48% (22–24)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO21641970

Hard-court ELO19761752

Serve vs returnLast 51 vs 40 matches

1st-serve points won75%76%

Return points won37%34%

Aces / match5.610.6

ClutchLast 51 vs 40 matches

Break points saved66%65%

When it starts

CENTRE COURT · After 1 match · Not before 18:30

1Cerundolo F. v Griekspoor T.Not before 16:00
2This match: Fils A. v Struff J.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

CENTRE COURT · 18:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast10°C · Drizzle

Wind26 km/h

Humidity88%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Fils A.Struff J.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days3

23Games · 7 days66

3Matches · 14 days4

64Games · 14 days95

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Fils vs Jan Lennard Struff — European Open - Brussels Semi-final", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-24/fils-vs-struff-european-open-brussels-sf?utm_source=cite (as of 24 October 2026).