Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova

UMPIRY

Toray Pan Pacific Open - TokyoR32HardMon 26 Oct · 02:00 UTCShow Court · Next on

Aliaksandra SasnovichWTA #122 · BLR27%

VSClear favourite · Bartunkova N.

Nikola BartunkovaWTA #29 · CZE73%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Bartunkova N.

27%73%

Clear edge for Bartunkova N. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Sasnovich A.5.2/10

Clear underdog

Bartunkova N.6.5/10

Marginal edge

Why

Surface+22 Hard Elo edgeSupports Bartunkova N.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1788Supports Bartunkova N.

Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

ELO1 844

Hard ELO1 751

Last 107–3

Age32

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $379K

ELO1 968

Hard ELO1 816

Last 107–3

Age20

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.8M2026 $1.6M

Aliaksandra Sasnovich faces Nikola Bartunkova in the Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo round of 32 on hard. Nikola Bartunkova holds the paper edge — ranked #29, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Workload contrast: Aliaksandra Sasnovich 121 games in 14 days, Nikola Bartunkova 50.
Under pressure: Nikola Bartunkova has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 72 vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich's 25).
Surface form: Both 7 of 10 on hard recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

12 shared · last 12 months

Sasnovich A. and Bartunkova N. faced 12 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Sasnovich A. went 6–8 (43%) against them, Bartunkova N. 9–5 (64%). Bartunkova N. came out better against 5 of 12 comparable opponents, Sasnovich A. against 0.

6–843%Sasnovich A. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents9–564%Bartunkova N. · better vs 5

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

12–16Sets19–13

126–131Games159–143

0–2Tiebreaks2–4

1–0Deciding sets3–1

vs Andreeva M.#3L2-6 2-6Singapore · hardL2-6 2-6Beijing · hard
vs Muchova K.#7L2-6 4-6Stuttgart · clayW6-3 6-0Beijing · hard
vs Bencic B.#14L3-6 4-6Hong Kong · hardW6-3 0-6 6-4Australian Open · hard

Show 9 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Cirstea S.#17L3-6 6-7Dubai · hardL6-7(5) 3-6Cincinnati · hard
vs Paolini J.#35L1-6 2-6Australian Open · hardL6-7(5) 3-6Wuhan · hard
vs Frech M.#47L4-6Berlin · grassW6-2 6-2Beijing · hard
vs Tauson C.#54W6-2 6-3Brisbane · hardW6-3 6-4Toronto · hard
vs Blinkova A.#72W7-5 6-1Brisbane · hardW6-4 6-4Ostrava · hard
vs Kasatkina D.#74W7-5 6-0Singapore · hardW7-6 0-6 6-3Australian Open · hard
vs Charaeva A.#97L3-6 4-6Madrid · clayL7-6(6) 2-6 6-7(6)Madrid · clay
vs Andreescu B.#132L3-6 6-7Wimbledon · grassW7-5 6-4Toronto · hard
vs Osuigwe W.#230W6-4 6-3Roland Garros · clayW6-1 6-0Australian Open · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Sasnovich A.Bartunkova N.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss7–37–3

Season win rate59% (37–26)65% (40–22)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18441968

Hard-court ELO17511816

Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 61 matches

1st-serve points won65%70%

Return points won46%43%

Aces / match2.94.5

ClutchLast 60 vs 61 matches

Break points saved58%57%

When it starts

Show Court · Next on · Starting at 11:00 AM

1This match: Sasnovich A. v Bartunkova N.This match

Draw

Odds

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Sasnovich A.Bartunkova N.

0Days since last match11

5Matches · 7 days0

102Games · 7 days0

6Matches · 14 days2

121Games · 14 days50

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Aliaksandra Sasnovich vs Nikola Bartunkova — Toray Pan Pacific Open - Tokyo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/bartunkova-vs-sasnovich-toray-pan-pacific-open-tokyo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).