Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi | Vienna Round of 32

UMPIRY

ViennaR32HardMon 26 Oct · ~19:00GLAUBANDICH COURT · After 1 match

Luciano DarderiATP #23 · ITA55%

VSToss-up

Matteo ArnaldiATP #36 · ITA45%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Darderi L.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Arnaldi M.5.9/10

Even match

Why

Surface+54 Hard Elo edgeAgainst the prediction · Arnaldi M.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1834Supports Darderi L.

Recent runLost last 3Informative

This eventReached the R32 here last yearInformative

Surface switchClay → HardSupports Darderi L.

ELO1 972

Hard ELO1 705

Last 105–5

Age24

Height183 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $5.2M2026 $1.8M

ELO1 906

Hard ELO1 724

Last 103–7

Age25

Height185 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $6.3M2026 $1.7M

Luciano Darderi faces Matteo Arnaldi in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Luciano Darderi holds the paper edge — ranked #23, defending last year's round of 32. Recent hard form is closely matched. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, though this is their first meeting on hard.

Key context

Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1; this is their first meeting on hard. Last met at Turin CH 2024.
Stage: Luciano Darderi defends last year's round of 32; Matteo Arnaldi defends last year's round of 16.
Surface form: Luciano Darderi 4 of 9, Matteo Arnaldi 3 of 9 on hard recently — Luciano Darderi the sharper of late.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Darderi L. and Arnaldi M. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Darderi L. went 2–4 (33%) against them, Arnaldi M. 1–5 (17%). Results against comparable opponents are close (2 : 1 better-results split).

2–433%Darderi L. · better vs 2Record vs common opponents1–517%Arnaldi M. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

6–9Sets5–13

78–86Games74–98

4–1Tiebreaks0–1

1–1Deciding sets0–2

vs Jodar R.#11W7-6 5-7 6-0Rome Masters · clayL1-6 6-4 3-6Rome Masters · clay
vs Tsitsipas S.#33L3-6 4-6Shanghai Masters · hardW5-7 6-3 6-2Roland Garros · clay
vs Landaluce M.#67L3-6 7-6 4-6Miami Masters · hardL4-6 6-4 4-6Cincinnati · hard

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Duckworth J.#68L5-7 6-7(7)Almaty · hardL7-5 3-6 2-6 6-7(8)US Open · hard
vs Garin C.#171W7-6 7-5 7-6Australian Open · hardL2-6 4-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Rublev A.#22Hard to compareL4-6 3-6Bastad · clayL4-6 2-6 3-6Australian Open · hard

Head-to-head

2 meetings · level 1–1

Darderi L.May 2024Turin CHClay6-2 2-6 6-3
Arnaldi M.March 2022Zadar CHClay7-5 5-7 6-2

Evidence

Darderi L.Arnaldi M.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–53–7

Season win rate57% (36–27)49% (19–20)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO19721906

Hard-court ELO17051724

Serve vs returnLast 59 vs 34 matches

1st-serve points won72%71%

Return points won37%38%

Aces / match6.15.1

ClutchLast 59 vs 34 matches

Break points saved62%60%

When it starts

GLAUBANDICH COURT · After 1 match · Followed by

1Fery A. v Fearnley J.Starts at 17:30
2This match: Darderi L. v Arnaldi M.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

GLAUBANDICH COURT · ~19:00 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast10°C · Partly cloudy

Wind6 km/h

Humidity67%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Darderi L.Arnaldi M.

5Days since last match7

1Matches · 7 days1

25Games · 7 days17

1Matches · 14 days1

25Games · 14 days17

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Luciano Darderi vs Matteo Arnaldi — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/arnaldi-vs-darderi-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).