Andrey Rublev vs Luciano Darderi — Bastad Final
RUS1
ITA2
Rublev A.
Andrey Rublev faces Luciano Darderi in the Bastad final on clay. Andrey Rublev holds the paper edge — ranked #16, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Andrey Rublev has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 84 vs Luciano Darderi's 63).
- Fatigue load: Andrey Rublev carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.
- Head-to-head: Andrey Rublev leads the head-to-head 1–0. Last met at Hamburg 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadRublev A.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 50 games (7d) · Darderi L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 43 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
1–0| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-18 | Hamburg | QF | clay | Andrey Rublev | 6-1 3-6 6-3 |