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Arthur Fery vs Jacob Fearnley — Vienna Round of 32

ViennaR32HardMon 26 Oct · 17:30
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
54%46%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Fery A.6.6/10
Marginal edge
Fearnley J.5.3/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+120 Hard Elo edgeSupports Fery A.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1721Supports Fery A.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Fearnley J.
This eventReached qualifying here last yearAgainst the prediction · Fearnley J.
Surface switchClay → HardAgainst the prediction · Fearnley J.
ELO1 941
Hard ELO1 768
Last 105–5
Age24
Height175 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.2M2026 $1.7M
ELO1 899
Hard ELO1 746
Last 107–3
Age25
Height183 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $2.0M2026 $611K

Arthur Fery faces Jacob Fearnley in the Vienna round of 32 on hard. Arthur Fery is the paper favourite — ranked #34, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Jacob Fearnley arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 9 on hard to Arthur Fery's 5 of 9.

Key context

  • Freshness: Arthur Fery comes in with 5 days of rest and 22 games in 14d, vs Jacob Fearnley's 1 and 158.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Jacob Fearnley has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 85 vs 61).
  • Surface form: Arthur Fery 5 of 9, Jacob Fearnley 7 of 9 on hard recently — Jacob Fearnley the sharper of late.

Common opponents

5 shared · last 12 months

Fery A. and Fearnley J. faced 5 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Fery A. went 3–2 (60%) against them, Fearnley J. 3–3 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (1 : 0 better-results split).

3–260%Fery A. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents3–350%Fearnley J. · better vs 0
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
6–7Sets7–7
61–61Games62–66
0–2Tiebreaks1–0
1–0Deciding sets1–0
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Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Fery A.Fearnley J.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss5–57–3 (ahead)
Season win rate62% (33–20) (ahead)60% (38–25)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1941 (ahead)1899
Hard-court ELO1768 (ahead)1746
Serve vs returnLast 49 vs 60 matches
1st-serve points won69%71% (ahead)
Return points won39%40% (ahead)
Aces / match3.95.0 (ahead)
ClutchLast 49 vs 60 matches
Break points saved61% (ahead)58%

Draw

Odds

Conditions

17:30 local
SurfaceHard · fast
Forecast12°C · Overcast
Wind4 km/h
Humidity56%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Fery A.Fearnley J.
5 — fresherDays since last match1
1 — fresherMatches · 7 days4
22 — fresherGames · 7 days86
1 — fresherMatches · 14 days8
22 — fresherGames · 14 days158
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Arthur Fery vs Jacob Fearnley — Vienna Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-26/fearnley-vs-fery-vienna-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 26 October 2026).