Talia Gibson vs Sinja Kraus | Japan Open

UMPIRY

Japan Open - OsakaR16HardWed 21 Oct · 11:30Center · Next on

Talia Gibson(4)WTA #42 · AUS55%

VSToss-up

Sinja KrausWTA #76 · AUT45%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

55%45%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Gibson T.6.3/10

Marginal edge

Kraus S.6.0/10

Even match

Why

Surface+120 Hard Elo edgeSupports Gibson T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1737Informative

Recent run3-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Kraus S.

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysSupports Gibson T.

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 833

Hard ELO1 768

Last 105–5

Age22

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $2.1M2026 $1.2M

ELO1 856

Hard ELO1 643

Last 107–3

Age24

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $700K

Talia Gibson faces Sinja Kraus in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 16 on hard. Talia Gibson is the paper favourite — ranked #42, a roughly 120-point hard Elo advantage — but Sinja Kraus arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Talia Gibson's 5 of 10.

Key context

Freshness: Talia Gibson comes in with 1 days of rest and 43 games in 14d, vs Sinja Kraus's 1 and 125.
Serve & return: Talia Gibson brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 42), Sinja Kraus the stronger return game (Return Rating 55).
Last match: Sinja Kraus advanced when Caty Mcnally retired.

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Gibson T. and Kraus S. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Gibson T. went 3–4 (43%) against them, Kraus S. 1–5 (17%). Gibson T. came out better against 3 of 6 comparable opponents, Kraus S. against 1 — though 1 of those edges carries caveats (retirement).

3–443%Gibson T. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents1–517%Kraus S. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

5–8Sets5–10

64–66Games61–75

0–3Tiebreaks0–0

0–0Deciding sets0–3

vs Chwalinska M.#11W7-5 6-1Toronto · hardL1-6 3-6Oeiras 125 · clay
vs Pliskova K.#48L5-7 4-6Nottingham · grassL6-2 1-6 4-6Madrid · clay
vs Cocciaretto E.#65W6-2 3-2Toronto · hardL2-6 4-6Rome · clay

Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Charaeva A.#97L2-6 6-7(6)London · grassL7-5 5-7 5-7Hamburg · clay
vs Jones F.#99W6-3 5-7Nottingham · grassL6-1 4-6 1-6Auckland · hard
vs Yastremska D.#103L6-7 6-7Brisbane · hardW6-1 6-4Beijing · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Gibson T.Kraus S.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–57–3

Season win rate56% (35–28)65% (50–27)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18331856

Hard-court ELO17681643

Serve vs returnLast 60 vs 75 matches

1st-serve points won68%62%

Return points won43%47%

Aces / match5.41.5

ClutchLast 60 vs 75 matches

Break points saved55%55%

When it starts

Center · Next on · Starting at 11:30 AM

1This match: Gibson T. v Kraus S.This match
2Valentova T. v Tagger L.Not before 12:30 PM
3Boulter K. v Golubic V.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center · 11:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Clear

Wind12 km/h

Humidity75%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Gibson T.Kraus S.

1Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days3

25Games · 7 days61

2Matches · 14 days6

43Games · 14 days125

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Talia Gibson vs Sinja Kraus — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/gibson-vs-kraus-japan-open-osaka-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).