Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger | Japan Open

UMPIRY

Japan Open - OsakaR16HardWed 21 Oct · 12:30Center · After 1 match

Tereza ValentovaWTA #88 · CZE51%

VSToss-up

Lilli TaggerWTA #57 · AUT49%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up

51%49%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Valentova T.5.7/10

Slight disadvantage

Tagger L.5.5/10

Slight disadvantage

Why

Surface+109 Hard Elo edgeSupports Valentova T.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1818Supports Valentova T.

Head-to-headFirst meeting on hardBoth players

This eventDidn't play here last yearBoth players

Long matches1 three-setter in 14 daysBoth players

ELO1 874

Hard ELO1 771

Last 106–4

Age19

EarningsCareer $1.3M2026 $757K

ELO1 787

Hard ELO1 697

Last 105–5

Age18

EarningsCareer $829K2026 $757K

Tereza Valentova faces Lilli Tagger in the Japan Open - Osaka round of 16 on hard. Tereza Valentova holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 110-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Serve & return: Lilli Tagger brings the bigger serve (Serve Rating 58), Tereza Valentova the stronger return game (Return Rating 55).
Freshness: Tereza Valentova comes in with 0 days of rest and 25 games in 14d, vs Lilli Tagger's 1 and 46.
Last match: Lilli Tagger dropped just 6 games past Liudmila Samsonova.

Common opponents

3 shared · last 12 months

Valentova T. and Tagger L. faced 3 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Valentova T. went 1–2 (33%) against them, Tagger L. 1–2 (33%). Only 2 of the comparisons are context-comparable — too few for a conclusion.

1–233%Valentova T. · better vs 0Record vs common opponents1–233%Tagger L. · better vs 1

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

2–4Sets2–4

29–31Games25–32

0–1Tiebreaks1–0

Only 3 common opponents — small sample, treat as indicative.

vs Snigur D.#40L6-7(4) 3-6Livesport Prague Open · hardW7-6(3) 6-2Livesport Prague Open · hard
vs Korneeva A.#80L5-7 3-6Athens · hardL3-6 3-6Rome · clay
vs Blinkova A.#72Hard to compareW6-3 6-2Saint Malo 125 · clayL3-6 3-6Jiujiang · hard

Head-to-head

1 meeting · Valentova T. leads 1–0

Valentova T.April 2026Saint Malo 125Clay7-5 7-5

Evidence

Valentova T.Tagger L.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss6–45–5

Season win rate59% (27–19)60% (31–21)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18741787

Hard-court ELO17711697

Serve vs returnLast 45 vs 51 matches

1st-serve points won63%67%

Return points won46%43%

Aces / match2.34.3

ClutchLast 45 vs 51 matches

Break points saved55%54%

When it starts

Center · After 1 match · Not before 12:30 PM

1Gibson T. v Kraus S.Starting at 11:30 AM
2This match: Valentova T. v Tagger L.This match
3Boulter K. v Golubic V.Followed by

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Center · 12:30 local

SurfaceHard

Forecast27°C · Clear

Wind12 km/h

Humidity75%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Valentova T.Tagger L.

0Days since last match1

1Matches · 7 days2

25Games · 7 days46

1Matches · 14 days2

25Games · 14 days46

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Tereza Valentova vs Lilli Tagger — Japan Open - Osaka Round of 16", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-21/tagger-vs-valentova-japan-open-osaka-r16?utm_source=cite (as of 21 October 2026).