Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones — Nottingham Round of 32
Nottingham · WTA · Round of 32
—
Sets
Monday, 15 June 2026 ·
grass
Talia Gibson faces Francesca Jones in the Nottingham round of 32 on grass. Talia Gibson holds the paper edge — ranked #63, a roughly 160-point grass Elo advantage.
Key context
- Stage: Francesca Jones defends last year's round of 16.
- Fatigue load: Talia Gibson carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTCGibson T.84%
Jones F.16%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Gibson T. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
7.0+159 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO3.0Grass Elo 1470
5.6Overall Elo 1774
ELO gap4.4Overall Elo 1639
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.65 of last 10 on grass
Surface form2.73 of last 10 on grass
0.0Lost last 4
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set countContext
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts6.0Reached the last 16 here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Conditions
Weather forecast
14°CClear
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 63%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form62%1st serve in+5%67%
71%1st serve points won+14%57%
47%2nd serve points won+2%45%
62%Service points won+9%53%
42%Return points won+3%45%
59%Break points saved+6%53%
5.8Aces / match+4.61.2
3.7Double faults / match+0.23.5
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.