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Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32

Ningbo Open - NingboR32HardMon 19 Oct · 16:00Grandstand · Next on
Win probabilityWho is more likely to winToss-up
53%47%

No meaningful edge. Serve performance in the first set is the likeliest tiebreaker.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability
Kasatkina D.5.7/10
Slight disadvantage
Sasnovich A.5.2/10
Clear underdog
Why
Surface+60 Hard Elo edgeSupports Kasatkina D.
Overall ratingOverall Elo 1795Supports Kasatkina D.
Recent run2-match win streakAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.
Head-to-headSplit 4–4 on hardAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.
Long matches2 three-setters in 14 daysAgainst the prediction · Sasnovich A.
ELO1 868
Hard ELO1 750
Last 104–6
Age29
Height170 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $15.3M2026 $1.1M
ELO1 817
Hard ELO1 728
Last 107–3
Age32
Height174 cm
PlaysRight
EarningsCareer $6.8M2026 $379K

Daria Kasatkina faces Aliaksandra Sasnovich in the Ningbo Open - Ningbo round of 32 on hard. Daria Kasatkina is the paper favourite — ranked #82, a roughly 60-point hard Elo advantage — but Aliaksandra Sasnovich arrives in form, winning 7 of their last 10 on hard to Daria Kasatkina's 4 of 10. They have met 10 times, the series level at 5–5.

Key context

Common opponents

6 shared · last 12 months

Kasatkina D. and Sasnovich A. faced 6 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Kasatkina D. went 3–4 (43%) against them, Sasnovich A. 4–4 (50%). Results against comparable opponents are close (3 : 3 better-results split).

3–443%Kasatkina D. · better vs 3Record vs common opponents4–450%Sasnovich A. · better vs 3
Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines
8–10Sets9–11
86–89Games92–89
1–2Tiebreaks0–0
2–2Deciding sets3–1
Show 3 more ▾Show less ▴

Head-to-head

10 meetings · level 5–5
55

Hard: level 4–4 · Clay: level 1–1

Evidence

Kasatkina D.Sasnovich A.
FormLast 10 matches each · 2026
Win–loss4–67–3 (ahead)
Season win rate51% (24–23)58% (34–25) (ahead)
RatingUmpiry ELO
Overall ELO1868 (ahead)1817
Hard-court ELO1750 (ahead)1728
Serve vs returnLast 43 vs 56 matches
1st-serve points won58%65% (ahead)
Return points won48% (ahead)46%
Aces / match1.92.9 (ahead)
ClutchLast 43 vs 56 matches
Break points saved52%58% (ahead)

When it starts

Grandstand · Next on · Not before 4:00 PM

Draw

Odds

Conditions

Grandstand · 16:00 local
SurfaceHard
Forecast27°C · Mainly clear
Wind14 km/h
Humidity74%

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days
Kasatkina D.Sasnovich A.
5 — fresherDays since last match1
2Matches · 7 days1 — fresher
37Games · 7 days19 — fresher
3 — fresherMatches · 14 days4
70 — fresherGames · 14 days74
Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Daria Kasatkina vs Aliaksandra Sasnovich — Ningbo Open - Ningbo Round of 32", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-19/kasatkina-vs-sasnovich-ningbo-open-ningbo-r32?utm_source=cite (as of 19 October 2026).