Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot

UMPIRY

Shanghai MastersR64HardSat 10 Oct · ~19:30STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches

Sebastian BaezATP #53 · ARG25%

VSClear favourite · Vacherot V.

Valentin Vacherot(17)ATP #14 · MON75%

Win probabilityWho is more likely to winClear favourite · Vacherot V.

25%75%

Clear edge for Vacherot V. across form, surface and matchup. Upsets at this level happen in about 1 in 4 such matches.

Umpiry ScoreMatchup strength, 0–10 · not a probability

Baez S.5.8/10

Slight disadvantage

Vacherot V.7.1/10

Strong advantage

Why

Surface+144 Hard Elo edgeSupports Vacherot V.

Overall ratingOverall Elo 1903Supports Vacherot V.

This eventReached the final here last yearSupports Vacherot V.

Travel1h west, 4d agoInformative

Head-to-headNo prior meetingsBoth players

ELO1 868

Hard ELO1 698

Last 105–5

Age25

Height170 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $7.2M2026 $1.2M

ELO2 011

Hard ELO1 844

Last 105–5

Age27

Height193 cm

PlaysRight

EarningsCareer $3.7M2026 $1.1M

Sebastian Baez faces Valentin Vacherot in the Shanghai Masters round of 64 on hard. Valentin Vacherot holds the paper edge — ranked #14, defending the title, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage. Recent hard form is closely matched.

Key context

Freshness: Sebastian Baez comes in with 1 days of rest and 59 games in 14d, vs Valentin Vacherot's 4 and 132.
Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Valentin Vacherot grades 56 on serve, Sebastian Baez 60 on return.
Last match: Sebastian Baez dropped the opening set before beating Marcos Giron 1–6 6–3 6–4.

Common opponents

7 shared · last 12 months

Baez S. and Vacherot V. faced 7 of the same opponents in the last 12 months. Baez S. went 2–5 (29%) against them, Vacherot V. 6–2 (75%). Vacherot V. came out clearly better against 4 of 6 comparable opponents, Baez S. against 1 — though 2 of those edges carry caveats (lower-tier event, retirement).

2–529%Baez S. · better vs 1Record vs common opponents6–275%Vacherot V. · better vs 4

Vs common opponents · derived from scorelines

4–11Sets12–7

47–79Games104–87

1–0Tiebreaks3–1

1–0Deciding sets3–0

vs Alcaraz C.#3L1-6 3-6Monte Carlo Masters · clayL4-6 4-6Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Lehecka J.#19W6-4 6-1Indian Wells Masters · hardW6-1 6-3Paris Masters · hard
vs Bublik A.#22L1-6 2-6Rome Masters · clayW7-6 7-6KAZ vs MON · hard

Show 4 more ▾Show less ▴

vs Norrie C.#40L3-6 4-6Paris Masters · hardW7-6 6-4Paris Masters · hard
vs Cerundolo J.#55L2-6 0-4Winston-Salem · hardW5-7 6-2 6-1Monte Carlo Masters · clay
vs Hanfmann Y.#57L3-6 1-6Kitzbuhel · clayW4-6 6-3 6-4Gstaad · clay
vs Rinderknech A.#33Hard to compareW7-6(6) 2-6 6-4Kitzbuhel · clayW6-7 6-3 6-4Paris Masters · hard

Head-to-head

They have not met before.

Evidence

Baez S.Vacherot V.

FormLast 10 matches each · 2026

Win–loss5–55–5

Season win rate57% (33–25)58% (22–16)

RatingUmpiry ELO

Overall ELO18682011

Hard-court ELO16981844

Serve vs returnLast 36 vs 25 matches

1st-serve points won65%77%

Return points won38%34%

Aces / match1.910.2

ClutchLast 36 vs 25 matches

Break points saved65%69%

When it starts

STADIUM COURT · After 3 matches · Followed by

1Ugo Carabelli C. v Auger-Aliassime F.Starts at 12:00
2Yunchaokete B. v Ruud C.Followed by
3Cerundolo J. v Alcaraz C.Not before 18:00
4This match: Baez S. v Vacherot V.This match

Draw

Odds

Conditions

STADIUM COURT · ~19:30 local

SurfaceHard · fast

Forecast21°C · Drizzle

Wind6 km/h

Humidity88%

Court pace fast: big serves, short points.

Freshness

Last 7 & 14 days

Baez S.Vacherot V.

1Days since last match4

1Matches · 7 days3

26Games · 7 days83

2Matches · 14 days5

59Games · 14 days132

Green marks the fresher player.

Cite this

Umpiry, "Sebastian Baez vs Valentin Vacherot — Shanghai Masters Round of 64", https://umpiry.com/match/2026-10-10/baez-vs-vacherot-shanghai-masters-r64?utm_source=cite (as of 10 October 2026).