Daria Kasatkina vs Paula Badosa — US Open Round of 128
Kasatkina D.
Daria Kasatkina faces Paula Badosa in the US Open round of 128 on hard. Daria Kasatkina holds the paper edge — ranked #59, leading the head-to-head 4–3, defending last year's round of 32.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Serve & return: Paula Badosa leads on Serve Rating (19), Daria Kasatkina on Return Rating (94).
- Under pressure: Paula Badosa has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 92 vs Daria Kasatkina's 53).
- Head-to-head: Daria Kasatkina leads the head-to-head 4–3, 2–1 on hard. Last met at Roland Garros 2025.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Conditions
Head to head
4–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | R32 | clay | Daria Kasatkina | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2024-10-14 | Ningbo | SF | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-4 0-0 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | R32 | grass | Paula Badosa | 7-6 4-6 6-4 |
| 2023-04-17 | Stuttgart | R32 | clay | Paula Badosa | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2022-08-01 | San Jose | SF | hard | Daria Kasatkina | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-05-09 | Rome | R16 | clay | Daria Kasatkina | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2022-01-10 | Sydney | SF | hard | Paula Badosa | 6-2 6-2 |