Paula Badosa vs Daria KasatkinaStuttgart Round of 32

Stuttgart · WTA · Round of 32
#141WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 17 April 2023
clay
#65WTA
1795ELO
1770Clay ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Badosa P.
6-1 6-1
Kasatkina D.
Badosa P.
662
Kasatkina D.
110

Paula Badosa defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-1 6-1 in the Stuttgart round of 32 on clay. The upset overturned the form book — Daria Kasatkina came in ranked #65, leading the head-to-head 4–2, defending last year's round of 16, but Paula Badosa had been the form player, winning 4 of their last 4 on clay. Paula Badosa narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR32clayDaria Kasatkina6-1 7-5
2024-10-14NingboSFhardDaria Kasatkina6-4 0-0 RET
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassPaula Badosa7-6(6) 4-6 6-4
2022-08-01San JoseSFhardDaria Kasatkina6-2 6-4
2022-05-09RomeR16clayDaria Kasatkina6-4 6-4
2022-01-10SydneySFhardPaula Badosa6-2 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving62% hold

wins 55% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
60%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.5
1.5
Double faults / match·Slight edge
5.4
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (131 vs 184). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
80
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.8Clay Elo 1684
Surface ELO
6.2+85 Clay Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1795
0.0
H2H
10.0
6.8
Surface form
6.6
Fatigue & Travel
6.1
Minutes 14d
6.0
3-set count
7.0
8.0
Prev. match
8.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
58
90

Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 9 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
11°CDrizzle
Wind 8 km/hHumidity 78%