Paula Badosa vs Daria KasatkinaSydney Semi-final

Sydney · WTA · Semi-final
#115WTA
1780ELO
1748Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWLLWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Monday, 10 January 2022
hard
#63WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
Badosa P.
6-2 6-2
Kasatkina D.
Badosa P.
662
Kasatkina D.
220

Paula Badosa defeated Daria Kasatkina 6-2 6-2 in the Sydney semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Daria Kasatkina came in ranked #63, leading the head-to-head 4–2. Paula Badosa narrowed the head-to-head to 4–3.

Key context

Head to head

24
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR32clayDaria Kasatkina6-1 7-5
2024-10-14NingboSFhardDaria Kasatkina6-4 0-0 RET
2024-07-01WimbledonR32grassPaula Badosa7-6(6) 4-6 6-4
2023-04-17StuttgartR32clayPaula Badosa6-1 6-1
2022-08-01San JoseSFhardDaria Kasatkina6-2 6-4
2022-05-09RomeR16clayDaria Kasatkina6-4 6-4

Serve vs return

This season
Badosa P.serving67% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Kasatkina D.

Kasatkina D.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Badosa P.Kasatkina D.
21
Serve
0
19
Return
95

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
59%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
59%
54%
Return points won·Even
44%
48%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.3
1.4
Double faults / match·Even
4.9
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (183 vs 200). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
93
78
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
80
Break points won·Slight edge
94
100
Deciding sets·Even
95
93
Tiebreaks·Dominant
94
47

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
4.7Hard Elo 1748
Surface ELO
5.3+10 Hard Elo edge
4.5Overall Elo 1780
ELO gap
5.5Overall Elo 1795
5.0
H2H
5.0
5.8
Surface form
7.1
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
9.2
Minutes 14d
6.6
3-set count
7.0
9.0
Prev. match
Context
5.0
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
63
92

Badosa P.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 98 games (7d) · Kasatkina D.: 10 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast