Alex Michelsen vs Adrian Mannarino — Washington Round of 16

Washington · ATP · Round of 16
Alex Michelsen
USA
Alex Michelsen
#40ATP
1825ELO
1810Hard ELO
$797kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
21 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWLWWW
—
Sets
Wednesday, 29 July 2026 ·
hard
Adrian Mannarino
FRA
Adrian Mannarino
#47ATP
1673ELO
1647Hard ELO
$644kYTD
$15MCAREER
38 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
WLWLWLLWLW
Michelsen A.
vs
Mannarino A.

Alex Michelsen faces Adrian Mannarino in the Washington round of 16 on hard. Alex Michelsen holds the paper edge — ranked #40, leading the head-to-head 2–1, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC
Michelsen A.81%
Mannarino A.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Michelsen A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
9 common opponents · Michelsen A. 3–8 · Mannarino A. 4–6
Both lost · same surface · 7 months apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Michelsen A.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Mannarino A.
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.0+163 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1647
6.9Overall Elo 1825
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1673
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
9.29 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.35 of last 10 on hard
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
6.8Won 80% in Usa (54)
Country comfort
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

25 vs 22 matches

Statistics

This season
Michelsen A.Mannarino A.
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
Return points won·Even
35%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
68%
57%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.3
5.1
Double faults / match·Even
2.1
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (25 vs 22). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Michelsen A.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Mannarino A.

Mannarino A.serving83% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Michelsen A.

Serve-dominated — both hold easily, expect tiebreaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Michelsen A.Mannarino A.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
54
60
Break points saved·Even
91
88
Break points won·Dominant
11
73
Deciding sets·Slight edge
85
80
Tiebreaks·Dominant
83
20

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Michelsen A.Mannarino A.
Freshness·Dominant
56
100

Michelsen A.: 2 days rest · 5 matches, 123 games (7d) · Mannarino A.: 19 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 20 km/hHumidity 67%

Head to head

2–1
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-03-31HoustonR16clayAlex Michelsen6-7 6-4 6-2
2024-06-24MallorcaR16grassAlex Michelsen7-6 6-4
2023-07-17NewportFgrassAdrian Mannarino6-2 6-4

Draw