Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Hernan Casanova — Quito Final
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Hernan Casanova in the Quito final on clay. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida holds the paper edge — ranked #397. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 22:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida 170 games in 14 days, Hernan Casanova 103.
- Last match: Hernan Casanova edged Felipe Meligeni Alves in two tight sets (7–6 7–5).
- Win streak: Both arrive on four-match winning runs.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (10 vs 13). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadPucinelli De Almeida M.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 93 games (7d) · Casanova H.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 55 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.