Juan Pablo Varillas vs Alan MagadanQuito Round of 16

Quito · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#308ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLLLLWWLW
0 — 2
Sets
Wednesday, 1 July 2026 ·
clay
CANCHA CENTRAL · 2nd on
#632ATP
1274ELO
1238Clay ELO
25 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLLWLWL
Varillas J.
1-6 4-6
Magadan A.
Varillas J.
140
Magadan A.
662

Alan Magadan won five games in a row to see off Juan Pablo Varillas 6-1 6-4 in the Quito round of 16.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 4: Alan Magadan broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Juan Pablo Varillas converted 1 of 5 break points; Alan Magadan converted 4 of 5 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Varillas J.
Magadan A.
Break points won
1/5
4/5
Break points saved
1/5
4/5

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Varillas J.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Magadan A.

Magadan A.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Varillas J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
54%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
67%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
47%
Service points won·Even
60%
58%
Return points won·Even
42%
38%
Break points saved·Even
59%
55%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
4.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
4.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:20 UTC
Varillas J.81%
Magadan A.19%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Varillas J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
7.4+193 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.6Clay Elo 1238
7.1Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
2.9Overall Elo 1274
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.84 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
81
78

Varillas J.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Magadan A.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
19°COvercast
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 43%