Juan Pablo Varillas vs Dmitry Popko — Quito Round of 32
Varillas J.
Juan Pablo Varillas faces Dmitry Popko in the Quito round of 32 on clay. Juan Pablo Varillas holds the paper edge — ranked #309, a roughly 100-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Varillas J. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Juan Pablo Varillas has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 53 vs Dmitry Popko's 5).
- Surface form: Both 0 of 4 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.