Valerio Aboian vs Felipe Meligeni Alves — Quito Round of 16
Aboian V.
Valerio Aboian faces Felipe Meligeni Alves in the Quito round of 16 on clay. Valerio Aboian holds the paper edge — ranked #442. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 02:20 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Meligeni Alves F. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Felipe Meligeni Alves has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 48 vs Valerio Aboian's 15).
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Valerio Aboian 60 games in 14 days, Felipe Meligeni Alves 46.
- Last match: Felipe Meligeni Alves dropped just 3 games past Lucas Andrade Da Silva.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Form trajectory
Direction of recent form — results vs Elo expectation blended with serve/return vs each player's baseline, over the last few months. About
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadAboian V.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Meligeni Alves F.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 16 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.