Felipe Meligeni Alves vs Hernan Casanova — Quito Semi-final

Quito · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
BRAQ
Felipe Meligeni Alves
#567ATP
1477ELO
1469Clay ELO
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWWWWWW
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 4 July 2026 ·
clay
CANCHA CENTRAL · 1st on
Hernan Casanova
ARG7
Hernan Casanova
#340ATP
1393ELO
1381Clay ELO
32 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLWWLWWLW
Meligeni Alves F.
6-7 5-7
Casanova H.
Meligeni Alves F.
650
Casanova H.
772

Hernan Casanova defeated Felipe Meligeni Alves in the semifinals of the Quito tournament on clay, winning 7-6, 7-5. Casanova hit one ace to Alves' five, and both players made two double faults. Casanova converted 67% of his break points to Alves' 25%, and Casanova broke Alves' serve twice to Alves' once.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Meligeni Alves F.Casanova H.
1st serve in·Clear edge
64%
77%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
55%
54%
Service points won·Even
60%
60%
Return points won·Even
43%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
64%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.6
0.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.2
0.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (16 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Meligeni Alves F.Casanova H.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
30
8
Break points saved·Dominant
78
24
Break points won·Clear edge
3
22
Deciding sets·Slight edge
39
32
Tiebreaks·Dominant
85
34

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Meligeni Alves F.65%
Casanova H.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Meligeni Alves F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Meligeni Alves F.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Casanova H.
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.0+84 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1385
6.0Overall Elo 1477
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1397
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.67 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.66 of last 10 on clay
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Meligeni Alves F.Casanova H.
Freshness·Dominant
64
100

Meligeni Alves F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d) · Casanova H.: 15 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
16°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 50%

Draw