Valerio Aboian vs Felipe Meligeni AlvesQuito Round of 16

Quito · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#442ATP
1348ELO
1339Clay ELO
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWLWLWW
0 — 2
Sets
Thursday, 2 July 2026 ·
clay
CANCHA 1 · 1st on
#807ATP
1477ELO
1469Clay ELO
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWLL
Aboian V.
2-6 4-6
Meligeni Alves F.
Aboian V.
240
Meligeni Alves F.
662

Felipe Meligeni Alves reeled off seven straight games on the way to a 6-2 6-4 win over Valerio Aboian in the Quito round of 16.

Key context

  • Set 1, game 7: A 13-point game with four deuces went Felipe Meligeni Alves's way.
  • Set 2, game 1: Felipe Meligeni Alves broke serve.
  • Pressure points: Valerio Aboian converted 1 of 1 break points; Felipe Meligeni Alves converted 4 of 8 break points.

Pressure & serve by court

Aboian V.
Meligeni Alves F.
Break points won
1/1
4/8
Break points saved
4/8
0/1

Break points from this match. Serve-by-court shows the share of service points won from each side of the court; the court side alternates every point.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season
Aboian V.serving60% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Meligeni Alves F.

Meligeni Alves F.serving56% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Aboian V.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
67%
60%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
45%
50%
Service points won·Even
58%
57%
Return points won·Even
42%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
54%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
1.2
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.2
1.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
12
48
Break points saved·Dominant
39
90
Break points won·Clear edge
37
18
Deciding sets·Dominant
18
47
Tiebreaks·
88

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:22 UTC
Aboian V.32%
Meligeni Alves F.68%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Meligeni Alves F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Clay Elo 1326
Surface ELO
6.8+143 Clay Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1334
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1477
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.95 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
75
49

Aboian V.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 37 games (7d) · Meligeni Alves F.: 2 days rest · 6 matches, 142 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
17°COvercast
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 47%