Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria — London Round of 16

London · WTA · Round of 16

KAZ

Elena Rybakina

#2WTA

2175ELO

1921Grass ELO

$4.2MYTD

$29MCAREER

26 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

LWLWWWLWWW

—

Sets

Wednesday, 10 June 2026 · 10:00

grass

GER

Tatjana Maria

#52WTA

1617ELO

1620Grass ELO

38 yrs · 172 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWLLWLL

Elena Rybakina faces Tatjana Maria in the London round of 16 on grass. Elena Rybakina is the paper favourite — ranked #2, a roughly 300-point grass Elo advantage — but Tatjana Maria rides a 3-match win streak. They have met 2 times, the series level at 1–1, Tatjana Maria ahead 1–0 on grass.

Key context

Last match: Tatjana Maria dropped just 6 games past Maria Sakkari.
Head-to-head: The head-to-head is level 1–1, 0–1 on grass. Last met at Queen's Club 2025.
Fatigue load: Both played one three-setter in the past fortnight — neither arrives fresh.
Win streak: Tatjana Maria arrives on a 3-match winning run.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:21 UTC

Rybakina E.89%

Maria T.11%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rybakina E. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Rybakina E.

6.8

Slight advantageUmpiry Score

Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)

Maria T.

4.6

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

8.8+301 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

1.2Grass Elo 1620

10.0Overall Elo 2174

ELO gap

0.0Overall Elo 1617

3.0Trails 0–1 on grass

H2H

7.0Leads 1–0 on grass

6.87 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

8.08 of last 10 on grass

0.0

Win streak

7.03-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

6.8Won 80% in GBR (30)

Country comfort

5.0Won 50% in GBR (26)

3.0Clay → Grass

Surface transition

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.