Edward Winter vs Alastair Gray — Ilkley Qualifying Semi-final
Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#466ATP
1381ELO
1418Grass ELO
21 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 7 June 2026 ·
grass
COURT 3 · 3rd on
#272ATP
1407ELO
1372Grass ELO
27 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWLWWWL
Alastair Gray recovered from a set down to defeat Edward Winter 4-6 6-3 6-4 in the Ilkley qualifying semi-final.
Key context
- Set 1, game 8: A 13-point game with four deuces went Edward Winter's way.
- Set 3, game 7: Alastair Gray broke serve.
- Pressure points: Edward Winter converted 1 of 14 break points; Alastair Gray converted 2 of 8 break points.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 14:21 UTCWinter E.51%
Gray A.49%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
5.6+46 Grass Elo edge
Surface ELO4.4Grass Elo 1372
4.7Overall Elo 1381
ELO gap5.3Overall Elo 1407
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
Surface form
4.64 of last 10 on grass
0.0
Win streak0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.0Hard → Grass
Surface transition7.0Hard → Grass
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Winter E.
6341
Gray A.
4662
Conditions
Weather
18°CDrizzle
Wind 21 km/hHumidity 65%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.
Statistics
Recent form67%1st serve in+4%63%
69%1st serve points won+5%74%
52%2nd serve points won+1%51%
63%Service points won+2%65%
40%Return points won+3%37%
60%Break points saved+8%68%
1.4Aces / match+5.67
2.5Double faults / match+0.22.7
Averages from each player's recent completed matches (20 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Draw — qualifying
Final
Winter E.
Gray A.
6-43-64-6
Jubb P.
Smith K.
Broom C.
Romano F.
Okonkwo O.
Stewart H.
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