Rio Noguchi vs Keegan Smith — Ilkley Qualifying Final

Ilkley · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final

JPN

Rio Noguchi

#223ATP

1560ELO

1435Grass ELO

27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLLWWLWLL

1 — 2

Sets

Monday, 8 June 2026 · 14:15

grass

COURT 3 · 2nd on

USAQ

Keegan Smith

#252ATP

1421ELO

1411Grass ELO

27 yrs · 201 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

WLLLWWWWWW

A decisive break in the third set settled it as Keegan Smith got past Rio Noguchi 6-3 4-6 6-2 in the Ilkley qualifying final.

Key context

Set 2, game 9: A 13-point game with four deuces went Rio Noguchi's way.
Pressure points: Rio Noguchi converted 1 of 1 break points; Keegan Smith converted 3 of 6 break points.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 12:20 UTC

Noguchi R.68%

Smith K.32%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Noguchi R. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Noguchi R.

5.3

Clear underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Smith K.

5.1

Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

5.3+24 Grass Elo edge

Surface ELO

4.7Grass Elo 1410

6.7Overall Elo 1560

ELO gap

3.3Overall Elo 1421

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.24 of last 10 on grass

Surface form

Fatigue & Travel

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Noguchi R.

3621

Smith K.

6462