Iga Swiatek vs Elena Rybakina — Cincinnati Semi-final

Cincinnati · WTA · Semi-final
Iga Swiatek
POL3
Iga Swiatek
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 7 August 2025
hard
Elena Rybakina
KAZ9
Elena Rybakina
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Swiatek I.
7-5 6-3
Rybakina E.
Swiatek I.
762
Rybakina E.
530

Iga Swiatek defeated Elena Rybakina 7-5 6-3 in the Cincinnati semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–5, defending last year's round of 32. Iga Swiatek narrowed the head-to-head to 6–6.

Key context

  • Match story: Iga Swiatek closed it out in two sets, 7–5 6–3.

Head to head

5–6
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenQFhardElena Rybakina7-5 6-1
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina3-6 6-1 6-0
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16clayIga Swiatek1-6 6-3 7-5
2025-02-09DohaQFhardIga Swiatek6-2 7-5
2024-12-27United CupSFhardIga Swiatek7-6(5) 6-4
2024-04-15StuttgartSFclayElena Rybakina6-3 4-6 6-3
2024-02-12DohaFhardIga Swiatek7-6(8) 6-2
2023-05-08RomeQFclayElena Rybakina2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 RET
2023-03-06Indian WellsSFhardElena Rybakina6-2 6-2
2023-01-16Australian OpenR16hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-4
2021-09-20OstravaQFhardIga Swiatek7-6(5) 6-2
View full head-to-head →

Serve vs return

This season
Swiatek I.serving82% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
67
Serve
100
98
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
1st serve in·Even
61%
58%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
49%
51%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
65%
Aces / match·Dominant
3.0
7.0
Double faults / match·Even
3.1
2.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (85 vs 96). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
92
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Swiatek I.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Rybakina E.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Recent retirement (−1.5)
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 2022
Surface ELO
6.4+88 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 2122
6.9
H2H
3.1
7.8
Surface form
7.1
Fatigue & Travel
7.4
Minutes 14d
4.7
3-set count
4.0
8.0
Prev. match
6.0
6.6
Country comfort
6.0
Context
8.5
Defending pts
6.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
Freshness·Even
91
91

Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
28°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 67%

Draw

Final
Swiatek I.[3]
Paolini J.[7]
7-56-4
Semi-finals
Swiatek I.[3]
Rybakina E.[9]
7-56-3
Paolini J.[7]
Kudermetova V.
6-36-726-3
Quarter-finals
Paolini J.[7]
Gauff C.[2]
2-66-46-3
Kudermetova V.
Gracheva V.
6-16-2
Rybakina E.[9]
Sabalenka A.[1]
6-16-4
Swiatek I.[3]
Kalinskaya A.[28]
6-36-4
R16
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Alexandrova E.[12]
3-67-656-1
Swiatek I.[3]
Cirstea S.
6-46-3
Sabalenka A.[1]
Bouzas Maneiro J.
6-17-5
Paolini J.[7]
Krejcikova B.
6-16-2
Rybakina E.[9]
Keys M.[6]
6-736-46-2
Gracheva V.
Seidel E.
2-66-16-1
Kudermetova V.
Linette M.[31]
6-46-3
Gauff C.[2]
Bronzetti L.
6-26-4
R32
Gauff C.[2]
Yastremska D.[32]
W/O
Swiatek I.[3]
Kostyuk M.[25]
W/O
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Townsend T.
6-46-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Raducanu E.[30]
7-634-67-65
Keys M.[6]
Ito A.
6-46-0
Cirstea S.
Yuan Y.
6-726-46-4
Alexandrova E.[12]
Joint M.
6-46-3
Seidel E.
Kessler M.[29]
6-42-67-66
Kudermetova V.
Tauson C.[16]
3-67-646-4
Linette M.[31]
Pegula J.[4]
7-653-66-3
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Anisimova A.[5]
7-56-4
Gracheva V.
Muchova K.[11]
6-26-4
Rybakina E.[9]
Mertens E.[19]
4-66-37-5
Paolini J.[7]
Krueger A.[26]
7-626-1
Krejcikova B.
Jovic I.
6-43-66-2
Bronzetti L.
Ostapenko J.[23]
1-66-36-4
R64
Alexandrova E.[12]
Sun L.
6-46-2
Joint M.
Haddad Maia B.[18]
6-44-66-4
Mertens E.[19]
Ngounoue C.
3-67-637-5
Paolini J.[7]
Sakkari M.
7-627-65
Ostapenko J.[23]
Osorio C.
W/O
Muchova K.[11]
Garcia C.
7-637-60
Anisimova A.[5]
Jeanjean L.
W/O
Gracheva V.
Kenin S.[24]
6-776-36-3
Kessler M.[29]
Mcnally C.
6-46-3
Seidel E.
Navarro E.[8]
6-41-66-4
Kalinskaya A.[28]
Stearns P.
7-644-66-1
Sabalenka A.[1]
Vondrousova M.
7-56-1
Yastremska D.[32]
Tomova V.
6-42-66-2
Tauson C.[16]
Tomljanovic A.
6-36-756-4
Linette M.[31]
Sramkova R.
7-646-0
Kostyuk M.[25]
Maria T.
6-06-1
Gauff C.[2]
Wang X.
6-36-2
Kudermetova V.
Bencic B.[17]
6-47-60
Pegula J.[4]
Birrell K.
6-46-3
Townsend T.
Samsonova L.[13]
6-26-4
Jovic I.
Noskova L.[20]
6-36-0
Krueger A.[26]
Sevastova A.
6-40-66-3
Bronzetti L.
Kasatkina D.[15]
6-31-66-4
Raducanu E.[30]
Danilovic O.
6-36-2
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Fernandez L.[21]
6-36-3
Rybakina E.[9]
Zarazua R.
4-66-07-5
Ito A.
Pavlyuchenkova A.[27]
6-14-66-4
Keys M.[6]
Lys E.
1-66-37-61
Swiatek I.[3]
Potapova A.
6-16-4
Cirstea S.
Frech M.[22]
7-642-66-4
Yuan Y.
Shnaider D.[14]
6-41-66-3
Krejcikova B.
Svitolina E.[10]
2-66-46-3
R128
Sramkova R.
Dolehide C.
1-66-47-61
Stearns P.
Wang Y.
6-46-3
Garcia C.
Kartal S.
5-76-46-3
Zarazua R.
Putintseva Y.
3-66-46-2
Maria T.
Osuigwe W.
6-26-3
Ngounoue C.
Baptiste H.
6-14-66-1
Bouzas Maneiro J.
Williams V.
6-46-4
Bronzetti L.
Zhu L.
6-766-27-66
Townsend T.
Collins D.
6-47-62
Lys E.
Pera B.
6-24-67-5
Gracheva V.
Volynets K.
6-43-66-3
Wang X.
Arango E.
7-616-3
Tomova V.
Li A.
6-47-5
Osorio C.
Uchijima M.
7-51-66-4
Krejcikova B.
Parks A.
6-44-66-0
Jovic I.
Sierra S.
6-37-64
Sevastova A.
Bektas E.
6-46-766-1
Sakkari M.
Rakhimova K.
6-33-66-2
Birrell K.
Blinkova A.
6-26-1
Kudermetova V.
Lamens S.
6-16-3
Tomljanovic A.
Bondar A.
7-606-4
Mcnally C.
Inglis M.
6-26-3
Seidel E.
Kudermetova P.
1-66-36-2
Jeanjean L.
Starodubtseva Y.
7-51-66-4
Joint M.
Minnen G.
6-26-3
Sun L.
Ruzic A.
6-46-4
Yuan Y.
Bucsa C.
6-26-2
Cirstea S.
Vekic D.
6-14-66-3
Potapova A.
Siegemund L.
6-46-4
Ito A.
Ruse E.
6-27-66
Danilovic O.
Boulter K.
6-07-5
Vondrousova M.
Cristian J.
6-36-1