Iga Swiatek vs Elena RybakinaUnited Cup Semi-final

United Cup · WTA · Semi-final
#3WTA
2064ELO
2022Hard ELO
$2.0MYTD
$46MCAREER
25 yrs · 176 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Friday, 27 December 2024
hard
#2WTA
2122ELO
2110Hard ELO
$4.4MYTD
$29MCAREER
27 yrs · 184 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLWLWLW
Swiatek I.
7-6 6-4
Rybakina E.
Swiatek I.
7762
Rybakina E.
6540

Iga Swiatek defeated Elena Rybakina 7-6 6-4 in the United Cup semi-final on hard. The upset overturned the form book — Elena Rybakina came in ranked #2, leading the head-to-head 6–5, but Iga Swiatek had arrived on a 4-match winning run. Iga Swiatek narrowed the head-to-head to 6–6.

Key context

Head to head

56
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-01-19Australian OpenQFhardElena Rybakina7-5 6-1
2025-11-01Riyadh FinalsRRhardElena Rybakina3-6 6-1 6-0
2025-08-07CincinnatiSFhardIga Swiatek7-5 6-3
2025-05-26Roland GarrosR16clayIga Swiatek1-6 6-3 7-5
2025-02-09DohaQFhardIga Swiatek6-2 7-5
2024-04-15StuttgartSFclayElena Rybakina6-3 4-6 6-3
2024-02-12DohaFhardIga Swiatek7-6(8) 6-2
2023-05-08RomeQFclayElena Rybakina2-6 7-6(3) 2-2 RET
2023-03-06Indian WellsSFhardElena Rybakina6-2 6-2
2023-01-16Australian OpenR16hardElena Rybakina6-4 6-4
2021-09-20OstravaQFhardIga Swiatek7-6(5) 6-2

Serve vs return

This season
Swiatek I.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Rybakina E.

Rybakina E.serving77% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Swiatek I.

Serve advantage — Swiatek I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Swiatek I.Rybakina E.
67
Serve
100
98
Return
34

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
64%
59%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
69%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
50%
Service points won·Even
63%
64%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
43%
Break points saved·Even
62%
64%
Aces / match·Dominant
2.6
6.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.4
2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (163 vs 154). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
100
92
Break points saved·Even
98
98
Break points won·Even
100
96
Deciding sets·Even
99
97
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
98
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 44 days (−0.7)
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Extended break: 42 days (−0.7)
Form & Matchup
3.6Hard Elo 2022
Surface ELO
6.4+88 Hard Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 2064
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 2122
3.9
H2H
6.1
8.3
Surface form
6.5
7.04-match win streak
Win streak
Context
8.5
Defending pts
5.0

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
91
91

Swiatek I.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Rybakina E.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast